Our 2018 predictions article is always our most popular on the website.  Well, we’re halfway through the year so it’s time to see how we’re tracking so far.

As a quick summary, here are my January 2018 predictions.

  • interest rates up slightly (1 year discounted rate 4.8%-5%)’
  • Auckland house prices flat
  • Wellington/Christchurch house prices up ~10%
  • first home buyers get a few bonuses to make it easier to purchase

Interest rates up slightly

Nope.  Our best interest rates went down slightly in March with the most competitive banks offering 4.09%.  Most have returned to 4.19%-4.29% for their best 1 year offers.  This is generally the same as in January.  No joy here!

2018 Housing Market Predictions

Auckland house prices flat

The prediction so far is spot on with average sale price almost a flat line across most of the suburbs.

Special thanks to QV for presenting the statistics in a clear, easy to read format!

Wellington and Christchurch

This prediction is not going well so far (sorry Wellington and Christchurch!  I was hoping you’d have done better!).  As you can see below, most major suburbs in Wellington and Christchurch are the same or down slightly from their January values with no signs of increasing yet.

Special thanks to QV for presenting the statistics in a clear, easy to read format!

2018 First Home Buyer Prediction

I’m taking this one as a part-win.  Labour is marching on with their KiwiBuild plans which will offer 100,000 affordable homes to New Zealanders.

It’s still our hope that the government will either adjust the levels for HomeStart Grant or relax the LVR restrictions to allow anyone who is eligible for a First Home Withdrawal to be exempted from the <20% deposit restrictions.


So, 1.5 points out of 4.  To be honest, I’d rather interest rates stayed low and my first prediction remained incorrect.  It would be great for first home buyers to get some extra help and I’m looking forward to Wellington and Christchurch jumping up again in value!



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